"Venom" Will Have Zero Effect on the Spider-Man IP

This week, ScreenRant reported that "Venom's box office success lessens the possibility that Sony will return the rights to Spider-Man and related characters to Marvel".

The rationale is of course Venom's box office numbers, making the studio more than $500 million at the worldwide box office, according to the article. It includes some words from Jeff Bock, who is the senior box office analyst for Exhibitor Relations, whatever that is. He says "(Sony) took a calculated risk with Venom, and it's now going to be a series...It seems Disney needs Sony's Spider-Man more than Sony needs Disney...If they consistently make films audiences want to see, Disney will have to buy Sony to get Spider-Man back."

I just want to interject a lot of "ifs" here.

1. "IF" They "consistently make films audiences want to see"

Well there's the problem: Sony doesn't do that. Whether it's the Ghostbusters reboot, The Dark Tower film, the atrocious Emoji Movie, or hell, the two Amazing Spider-Man films, Sony has proven time and again that they are not consistent at making films audiences want to see. Even if the marketing tricks opening-weekenders into getting to the theaters, those people don't go back a second time, and they warn their more cautious and intelligent peers to stay away.

2. "IF" we're referring to Venom as a calculated risk

You say calculated risk, I say idiotic ignorant dumb luck. I don't believe Sony to be clever or risk-takers. I believe them to be incompetent. This is just my opinion. Again, just take another look at my above examples. They don't understand their audience. They think people will go see a movie just because it features an all-female cast, or things they recognize from their mobile devices, or superheroes they saw another actor portray 5 years prior. They love money. I would say they don't care about story, but it's simpler than that. They're not aware, apparently, that they lack story or character. They don't know to correct that, because they don't know it's missing, Don't give them too much credit.

3. "IF" Disney needs Sony's Spider-Man more than Sony needs Disney

Disney needs nothing. Disney is doing juuuuuuust fine currently. I don't "need" Clif Bars. I can survive without them, and in fact, lose out on no nutritional value as a result of not eating them. But, I like them, I choose to buy them and consume them. Disney doesn't NEED the Spider-Man IP beyond the current deal with Sony to share him. The Venom movie's success can't even be attributed to the Spider-Man character. THE MOVIE DIDN'T FEATURE SPIDER-MAN. Dustin and I(mostly Dustin) repeatedly complained about this. They made a film featuring a character the Spider-Man is a very important, crucial piece of, and they opted to not feature Spider-Man. They did this either because they couldn't include him under the terms of the deal with Marvel, or because they were too chickenshit (but also smart) to recast Spider-Man and risk confusing audiences by having two Peter Parkers, one for their universe (because that went so well) and one for the MCU (the incredible Tom Holland). To their fortune, the movie made its money, now naturally they want to make more films. But this attitude of "HELL YEAH whatcha think about THAT, Disney?" is premature and misguided. Congratulations, you released ONE hit film. Call back when it's 22. Oh, and also, the film didn't have Spider-Man, so don't think for a second that Sony has any additional leverage when it comes to whoring out that character. These topics are completely disconnected.

4. "IF" Disney has to buy Sony to get Spider-Man back

Then they fucking will. Seriously. I'm calling it. They will, no matter what Sony does. And Sony will take what Sony is offered. Because Sony is weak, pitiful, and ultimately powerless to negotiate too high a price for the Spider-Man IP. I'm sure many disagree, but Sony knows it doesn't have the right stuff to make Spider-Man work. That's why they partnered with Disney in the first place for theMCU webhead. They knew the brand needed rejuvenation, and that they couldn't handle it. Let's not forget, Disney has ALREADY earned back the $4 billion it paid George Lucas for Lucasfilm. They just shelled out billions for Fox, don't think they're shy about absorbing Sony. I guarantee the only reason they haven't is because the lawyers are having to draft a detailed agreement in which Disney only needs to own Spider-Man and can omit all the shitty and useless properties Sony owns.

What do you think? shoot me a comment below, or at hoopercast@gmail.com or leave a voicemail at 251-333-8732